BHHRG

Parliamentary and Presidential Elections in 2005 have brought a group of unpredictable nationalists to power
On 23rd October, 2005, Warsaw mayor Lech Kaczynski was elected President of Poland, becoming Poland’s third president since 1990. Earlier, on 25th September, Kaczynski’s party, Law and Justice (PiS) gained the largest number of votes in elections for the Parliament (Sejm) and Senate, just ahead of the free market, Citizens Platform (PO). As his campaign posters proclaimed, Mr. Kaczynski’s central pledge was the creation of a Fourth Polish republic which would be founded on the country’s moral revival.
The results of both elections also marked the third time that the country’s voters had veered from left to right: the outgoing Alliance of the Democratic Left (SLD) minority government had been shaken for some time by corruption allegations and popular discontent with its policies which were a continuation of the broad trends set by its predecessors since the first post-Communist government in 1989. Only one prominent SLD member escaped the vitriol heaped onto his party: President Alexander Kwasniewski has always been highly regarded by Poland’s Western allies in the EU, NATO and especially by politicians and opinion-formers in the United States.
Despite routine Western media reports about Poland’s “booming economy” and its model new democracy, behind the headlines not all is well on the Polish political scene . It is an open secret on the streets in Poland that disillusionment with what was on offer from both politicians and political parties set in some time ago. This is reflected in the declining numbers of those turning out to vote in national elections, a number that diminishes with each successive poll. For example, turnout barely reaching 40% in the 2005 parliamentary poll but with officially 60% voting in the second, decisive round of the presidential election. For millions of Poles there is no difference between ‘Right’ and ‘Left’, each has pursued the familiar post-Communist reform policies that have left at least 18% of the working age population unemployed with little prospect of an upturn any time soon.[1] Hundreds of thousands of young Poles have left their country’s “economic miracle” to seek menial work in Western European countries like Great Britain or Ireland.
BHHRG monitored the 2001 parliamentary election in Poland and has published analyses of other developments in the country. The Group’s observers monitored the parliamentary election in 2005 in and around the northern city of Gdansk. On 9th October, they observed the first round of the presidential election in Przemysl and the Bieszczady region of southern Poland, and, finally they monitored the second round of the presidential poll in and around Krakow.
The Group’s representatives met resistance from many polling commissions who were uneasy about the presence of foreign observers. Many officials refused to cooperate at all in giving basic details related to the number of registered voters, turnout etc. in their polling stations. No doubt, Poland is accustomed to being treated as an exemplary democracy and regards election observers as an intrusion even though it is a signature to OSCE agreements that permit monitoring of member countries’ polls by citizens’ bodies – but since even Polish parties with candidates in the elections were unable to get access to election data maybe BHHRG should not feel victimised!
While official Warsaw is confident that it can control the entities that come to power nationally and keep irksome parties, like Samoobrana and the League of Polish Families at arms length, they are still left having to face the embarrassment that few people support their chosen candidates: only 21% of registered voters supported the PiS and Citizens Union (PO) on 25th September. In such circumstances, suspicions arise that the official turnout figures of 40% for the parliamentary poll and 60% for the presidential election have been massaged to give a rosier picture of what really happened on the three election days. On the basis of their observations, BHHRG concluded that official figures given for the turnout in both parliamentary and presidential polls were inflated by someone somewhere – either at local or national level, meaning there should be no complacency about the conduct of elections in Poland.
On 10th November, a new minority government was sworn in led by prime minister, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz. Marcinkiewicz was a surprise choice for the post – most observers thought that Lech Kaczynski’s twin brother, Jaroslaw, was the leading candidate. PiS with the largest number of votes in the Sejm failed to reach a coalition deal with second favourites PO and declared that it would rely on the support of two smaller parties, Samoobrana and the League of Polish Families. This move underpinned PiS’s claim to be a champion of social protection (to satisfy Samoobrana) and family values (to appease the League). However, this may be a short-term, tactical move and PiS will likely revert to supporting Poland’s previous liberal, reform economic agenda. Boxed in by membership of the EU and other international bodies, it is difficult to see how it can implement state-sponsored, socialist-style policies. Then, PiS will get into bed with its natural allies, PO, and the ship of state will be back on its previous course.